Is the Videogame Hype Cycle Too Long?
The closed Starcraft 2 beta launched yesterday, which was only 6 months beyond when the beta was supposed to launch.
While Blizzard is almost as notorious as id or 3D Realms for taking their own sweet time to complete a game, this still raises the question: do we find out about games too early?
Can you maintain the hype?
Films have refined their hype cycle to a science. Film trailers traditionally come out several months before the release of a film for an ordinary event, 6 months before release for a blockbuster tentpole release, and in rare cases trailers begin to show up a year in advance.
It’s tough to keep somebody excited about a product for too long. It’s possible to build hype to a boiling point for several months, but let’s say George Lucas said Star Wars is going to release in 5 years! Tough to get excited when it’s very likely you’re dead by then.
George Lucas' new Star Wars masterpiece will literally build the franchise up one block at a time
Videogames haven’t quite mastered this marketing art, as games are frequently announced years in advance of release. While part of this is due to game delays being far more unpredictable and frequent compared to film delays, it still demonstrates amateur marketing mismanagement in a relatively young industry.
Has anybody executed this successfully?
I’m going to exclude annual releases from this section as it’s not too hard to advertise for the new Madden game or the next Call of Duty at the right time. Come hell or high water, it’s going to hit its release date, even if massive quality sacrifices are required.
Think back to the release of Half-Life 2, however. It was announced in the spring with a planned release in the fall. This was perfect, except for the fact that the game was subsequently delayed and lost much of its momentum.
When Diablo III was announced, the anticipation was palpable. Unfortunately, it quickly fades considering the release date is sometime in 2024.
Diablo III's release date has been pushed back until 2165. Blizzard regrets the delay but wants to release a polished product
Do game developers really believe they need a year or more to hype up the public about a game? Sure, it’s nice to have time to get preorders in, but that requires months, not years.
Is anybody learning?
That’s not to say there’s no hope. For every Valve that goes radio silent after hyping up their Half Life 2 episodes is a Naughty Dog properly spacing out Uncharted 2’s demonstration early last year and it’s November release.
Sony hasn’t made a huge marketing push for God of War III yet, although I’m sure closer to release we’re going to see it.
I find it hard to believe that a developer doesn’t know when their game is 3-4 months from release, and when it might take 18 months. Small one month delays of the type experienced by Dragon Age: Origins because of unforeseen polishing issues are acceptable, but I just don’t understand how a release date can be affirmed 3 months in advance of release, only to slip by a year or more.
Games could use more marketing like this. Not just this compelling, exactly like this. Wayne Rooney loves his Modern Warfare
EEDAR studies have shown that marketing has far more of an impact on sales of a game than review scores (which theoretically at least loosely track quality). Until the industry figures out how to properly manage a release on non-annual games, sales and therefore growth and innovation will be hindered.
Modern Warfare 2 is a phenomenon no doubt, but it doesn’t hurt that its marketing blitz was the largest ever seen and awareness was both at a high, and due to proper scheduling, peaking at the right time. More developers should follow suit.
