Backhand of Justice

What will it take for videogames to become a spectator sport in the United States? Videogames are one of the most popular recreational activities among Americans under the age of 40. Total game industry sales are higher than those of the film industry. Gaming doesn’t have the same anti-social stigma today that it had a decade ago. What else needs to happen for a breakthrough? I will argue that nothing needs to happen; watching videogames is already becoming a popular activity.

Games are too broad and diverse a category. Let’s focus on (what else) Starcraft II. It will inevitably become the highest selling RTS game, surpassing its predecessor. The original was hugely popular in South Korea with multiple dedicated Starcraft cable channels and millions of dollars in prize money offered in the professional Starcraft scene. Is there something characteristic to America that prevents that from happening here? Let’s first examine and disprove some obvious arguments.

1)      Starcraft II hasn’t sold enough copies to generate the level of interest required for a serious spectator community. Consider that Starcraft II already sold three million copies in its first month and will likely sell over five million copies in the United States alone in its lifetime. American Football, the most profitable American spectator sport, is only played by about three million people in America on an organized basis. The Super Bowl annually draws about 100 million viewers. Almost every popular spectator sport has far more viewers than there are players and sports aren’t only enjoyed by those who play them.

2)      Starcraft II is far too complicated for a non-player to understand and because of that it will never catch on. There are many rules in the NFL that are confusing to the casual viewer but don’t prevent enjoyment. Many viewers likely aren’t familiar with the new overtime rules or the conversion safety rule, but that’s what commentators are for. As long as the basic outline of the rules can be absorbed swiftly, the rest of the rulebook can be fleshed out situationally. Cricket remains cryptic to lots of viewers, but that doesn’t stop it from being the second most popular team sport in the world.

Koreans get quite excited by their Starcraft

Legitimate roadblocks

This doesn’t mean that there aren’t any serious roadblocks to Starcraft II becoming a spectator activity. Sports are helped by having roots and accessibility. Many children grew up with football, baseball or basketball, and have been playing it or were at least aware of it for their whole lives. Sports teams have regional affiliations and so it’s common to be supporting a team before you even fully understand the rules of the game. Roots in a sport go a long way and Red Sox fans feel it’s part of their identity, not just an activity that they enjoy. Videogames lack this aspect.

In addition, accessibility and cost are significant contributors to the popularity of sports. It’s no coincidence that football is the most popular sport in the world. Many children can play with a single $10 ball. A makeshift field can materialize almost anywhere. A computer that can adequately run Starcraft II, on the other hand, costs several hundred dollars, and the game itself is $60. Many American families already have the infrastructure in place but there is certainly a higher hurdle there.

Gaming has had some popular launches that capture public attention before. It's not a niche activity

Trends in gaming’s favor

All these legitimate hindrances to spectator gaming don’t mean that there is nothing going for it. There are far more gamers in the United States than there were even a decade ago, and so the base upon which to build a successful spectator platform is much larger.

In addition, gamers are much older on average than they were just a decade ago. Because games are such a new form of entertainment, the age of the average gamer is growing nearly as quickly as the age of the medium. Because PC gamers are now in their late 20’s on average instead of in their teens, they have far more disposable income to spend. The reason prize pools in golf and tennis have skyrocketed is because of the industry that has grown around the sport. Gamers have money to spend, and if plenty of people will shell out $100+ for a football season package, why shouldn’t there be the same interest in a Starcraft package? As long as companies like Razer can sell products as a result money won’t be an issue.

Finally, broadband internet has proliferated and improved to the point that streaming HD video is available to almost everybody. Who says Starcraft II needs a TV cable channel? Why couldn’t everything be hosted online? The internet and television are already converging with wireless modems included in almost all new TVs, and within a few years the source of entertainment might be completely separate from its viewing medium. While there are already independent online tournaments on Youtube there is no centrally funded league in the US, something that needs to happen before Starcraft II can truly go mainstream.

So when is it going to happen?

The setup is in place: computers are widespread, Starcraft II is selling like hotcakes, gaming isn’t looked upon as a nerdy leper activity (as much), gamers are older and have money, and the internet is now a viable delivery mechanism. So when is it going to happen?

If Starcraft II is going to hit the big time, it needs its Moneymaker moment. I refer to when Chris Moneymaker won an online poker tournament and won entry into the world series of poker, which he subsequently won along with $2.5 million. Suddenly, tournament poker wasn’t some niche game for Las Vegas professionals. It was a get rich quick scheme where anybody could win as long as you had access to the internet. Online poker tournaments instantly exploded in popularity, and ESPN 2, ESPN 3 and ESPN 8 ‘The Ocho’ had endless filler programming.

This is actually a picture of Starcraft tournament spectators, unlike the first image which was sadly the Olympics. Starcraft isn't quite that big (yet)

I think it’s clear what’s required for Starcraft II to make the jump: prize money. Currently there are monthly tournaments in Korea where the winner gets $83,000 so that is a step up, but imagine if there were four tournaments a year in the US where the prize pool was $1 million? That would increase excitement substantially above all other spectator video games and potentially vault it into the mainstream. When Blizzard is making hundreds of millions of dollars on the game, is that really unfeasible, especially with advertising and sponsorships? Many gamers would pick Starcraft II as their game of choice, as open invitational tournaments with a potential prize pool of $1 million are strong incentive to a teenager or college student.

This isn’t some crazy pipe dream either; it’s already happening in a grassroots way. The top Starcraft II commentators are now in the top 200 Youtube channels in terms of number of subscribers. Tournaments have gone from having several hundred dollars as a prize pool to having tens of thousands of dollars as a prize pool. Interest is growing, and I wouldn’t be surprised if at some point in the next five to ten years there is a breakthrough. Only the lifespan of the game will hold it back, but each new game doesn’t have to start from ground zero, especially given older games are more accessible in terms of hardware requirements.

Cyber gaming tournaments will never be comparable to American Football. The goal is to be like online poker, with similar prize money and following. Early trends are promising, and I don’t think this level of popularity is out of the question. Many gaming leagues have failed in the past, but we finally may be reaching the point where the stars align and professional gaming in the US comes of age. If they money is there, the players will follow.